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Waymo Safety Research PartnersBy making detailed information about crashes and miles driven publicly accessible, Waymo’s transparency will not only support independent research but foster public trust. We hope other companies developing and deploying automated driving systems follow suit.

where the denominator is called the Hurwitz zeta function, a fast-converging series. At this stage, the Bayesian statistician would compute the maximum a posterior estimation (MAP) given by the maximum of the distribution (which is at n=4n = 4n=4), or the mean nˉ=∑n≥4n1−k∑m≥4m−k=ζ(k−1,4)ζ(k,4)≃4.26\bar{n} = \frac{\sum_{n \geq 4} n^{1-k}}{\sum_{m \geq 4} m^{-k}} = \frac{\zeta(k-1, 4)}{\zeta(k, 4)} \simeq 4.26nˉ=∑m≥4​m−k∑n≥4​n1−k​=ζ(k,4)ζ(k−1,4)​≃4.26. A credible interval can be obtained now by just looking at the cumulative distribution function for the posterior distribution F(N)=∑s=4NP(n=s∣X)F(N) = \sum_{s=4}^N P(n = s | X)F(N)=∑s=4N​P(n=s∣X) and finding the values [4,nR][4, n_R][4,nR​] for which it covers 95% of the probability mass. For this problem we can just do it for a few values and see where it stops, leading to the interval [4,5]:,更多细节参见比特浏览器

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